ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a marginal increase in Pakistan’s government net debt, rising from 65.3% of GDP in 2025 to 65.7% in 2026, according to the sources.
While net debt is set to edge up, the IMF expects the country’s gross debt to decline slightly from 71.6% of GDP in 2025 to 71.3% in 2026. The report emphasizes the importance of efficient and well-allocated public spending to boost economic growth.
The Fund has also projected a reduction in government expenditure, falling from 21.1% of GDP in 2025 to 20.4% in 2026. On the revenue side, an improvement is anticipated — with government revenue forecast to rise to 16.2% of GDP in 2026, compared to 15.7% in 2025 and 12.7% in 2024.
Pakistan’s primary balance is expected to remain in surplus, reaching 2.5% in 2026, slightly higher than the 2.4% projected for 2025. The overall fiscal deficit is forecast to narrow from -5.3% in 2025 to -4.1% in 2026, indicating gradual fiscal consolidation.
The report also notes that the average maturity of government debt in 2025 is estimated at 14.2% of GDP. The projected interest rate–growth differential for 2025–2030 is -1.2%, suggesting favourable debt dynamics. Additionally, nonresident holdings of general government debt in 2024 are projected at 28.6% of the total.
These projections come as Pakistan continues its efforts to stabilize public finances and implement structural reforms.
