ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.6% for fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), which falls short of the government’s ambitious target of 4.2%.
In its latest World Economic Outlook Update titled “Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty,” the IMF also upgraded Pakistan’s growth estimate for FY25 by 0.1 percentage point, raising it to 2.7%. The Finance Division recently reported that Pakistan’s economy grew by 2.68% in FY25.
Comparatively, the World Bank has forecasted a 3.1% growth for FY26, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised its projection slightly upward to 3%, from an earlier 2.5%.
On the global front, the IMF forecasts growth of 3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026—slightly higher than its previous estimates. This optimism reflects factors such as lower-than-expected US tariffs, improved financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major economies.
Global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with significant variations across countries. Inflation is expected to stay above target in the United States while remaining relatively subdued in other major economies.
The IMF warned, however, that downside risks persist in the global economic outlook, similar to concerns raised in its April 2025 report.
Pakistan’s Finance Ministry has also projected July 2025 inflation to fall between 3.5% and 4.5%, citing easing price pressures.
