WASHINGTON: Global commodity prices are projected to surge 23% in 2026 as the Middle East war, energy supply disruptions and extreme weather risks drive up costs, raising concerns about inflation and food insecurity, the World Bank said on Wednesday.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the bank reported significant increases in energy, food and metals prices amid mounting geopolitical tensions and disruptions to international shipping.
Global energy prices are forecast to rise 32% this year, reaching their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Brent crude oil is expected to average $92 per barrel, while global oil supply is projected to decline 5.2%, marking its sharpest drop in four decades outside the 2020 global recession.
The World Bank warned that further escalation in the Middle East conflict or continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure could intensify supply shortages and push prices higher.
Food commodity prices are expected to increase by more than 10% in 2026, partly because of disruptions to grain shipments through the Black Sea. A further rise exceeding 7% is projected for 2027, bringing the cumulative increase close to 18%.
The report also highlighted the potential impact of a severe El Niño weather event. Combined with further shipping disruptions and escalating conflicts, adverse conditions could push food prices 12% above current projections, increasing the risk of food insecurity.
Meanwhile, fertilizer prices are forecast to climb 14% in 2026, largely driven by higher urea costs. Metals prices are projected to rise 25%, with aluminium, copper and tin benefiting from strong demand linked to renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres.
Precious metals prices are expected to surge 40% this year as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose warned that simultaneous global shocks were threatening economic growth and increasing inflationary pressures.
Although overall commodity prices are projected to decline 7% in 2027, continued disruptions could prolong pressure on vulnerable economies. The bank said it had already provided $8.7 billion in low-cost loans and other assistance to 25 countries affected by the Middle East war.
