Speaking at a press conference following the monetary policy announcement, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed said Pakistan’s external account position had improved significantly and the country had moved out of the danger zone.
He said remittances remained resilient during the first quarter of FY27, while exports were also recovering, supported by rice, high-value-added textiles and services. Exports are projected to reach between $32.5 billion and $33 billion during the fiscal year.
However, imports are expected to rise to $71 billion, driven by higher non-energy imports, increased economic activity and rising prices. Despite this increase, the current account deficit is projected to remain within 0-1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
The SBP governor said foreign exchange reserves had recovered from a low of $2.8 billion a few years ago to $21.5 billion, sufficient to cover approximately three months of imports.
According to the central bank’s projections, reserves are expected to increase to $23 billion by the end of December 2026 and reach $25 billion by June 2027. These estimates take into account external debt repayments and financing requirements.
Ahmed cautioned that the outlook remained vulnerable to elevated global commodity prices, tighter international financial conditions and supply constraints.
He also highlighted the importance of a market-based exchange rate in strengthening reserves. The SBP has purchased approximately $30 billion from the foreign exchange market over the past three years to build reserves, although a significant portion has been used for external debt repayments and other financing needs.
Regarding economic growth, the governor maintained the FY27 GDP growth forecast at 3.5-4.5 per cent. He said economic activity appeared to have gained momentum despite slower growth in the final quarter of FY26.
Ahmed attributed rising remittances to improved exchange rates, stronger border controls, reduced under-invoicing and reforms in exchange companies. He also noted that initiatives were underway to encourage overseas Pakistanis to send more money through formal channels.
