ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Pakistan's external financing gap will reach $31.4 billion by 2027-28, following the completion of the ongoing Fund-supported programs. The IMF staff report highlights that no privatization receipts are expected until 2030, indicating a significant challenge in managing the country’s financial needs.
According to the IMF’s projections, Pakistan’s external financing gap will stand at $19.75 billion in the 2025-26 budget, decreasing slightly to $19.35 billion in 2026-27. However, by 2027-28, the gap is expected to widen to over $31 billion. The IMF warns that Pakistan will need to secure additional financing, potentially from another IMF loan, to manage this gap effectively.
The IMF also forecasts that Pakistan’s gross foreign reserves will be approximately $23 billion by 2027-28, further complicating the country’s ability to address the financing gap. The country’s export projections for the coming years are expected to rise from $32.9 billion in 2025-26 to $38.59 billion in 2027-28, while imports are anticipated to increase from $59.9 billion to $67.13 billion over the same period. The Current Account Deficit is projected to remain between $1.48 billion and $3.85 billion.
In terms of remittances, the IMF anticipates a steady flow of around $36 billion from Pakistani workers abroad over the next three years. Despite these projections, economists question how the government plans to end its reliance on IMF loans after the current EFF and RSF programs.
As part of its agreement with the IMF, Pakistan has committed to implementing 13 key reforms, including climate change initiatives, green finance, and better water management systems, as well as new regulations for energy and environmental projects.
