ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Pakistan’s economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year downward to 2.6%, from its earlier estimate of 3%. The adjustment comes amid growing global uncertainty driven by tariff disputes initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, affecting several countries including Pakistan.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report released in April 2025, the IMF also warned of further deceleration in Pakistan’s growth for the 2025-26 fiscal year. The report reflects a continued trend of downward revisions, as the IMF had previously forecast growth at 3.2% in October 2024 and 3% in January 2025.
Despite the lower growth projection, the IMF provided a slightly positive outlook on Pakistan’s external balance. The current account deficit forecast has been sharply reduced from 1% of GDP to just 0.1%, dropping the expected figure from $3.7 billion to $400 million. For the next fiscal year, the deficit is projected to stay low at 0.4% of GDP.
These forecasts underline the fragile state of Pakistan’s economy amid ongoing global trade tensions and internal economic challenges.
